When we wrote in May this year about the increasing probability of blackouts in Poland, many believed that it was an exaggeration and unnecessary frightening. Only a few months have passed since then, and we can see for ourselves that there was no way to exaggerate the threat.
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Some time ago, there was information that Poland had very serious problems with balancing the demand for electricity. Official sources did not even hide it, and the occurrence of problems was confirmed by Polish Energy Networks. It was in line with the announcement issued a little earlier by the Government Security Center, warning against the possibility of power cuts and how to prepare for such situations.
Prepare for the worst
"Do you know what to do in a blackout situation? Keep your flashlight, candles, first aid kit and documents in an easily accessible place. Equip yourself with a portable charger - powerbank. Secure food supplies that do not require electricity for storage and preparation”- reads the aforementioned release.
This might have come as a surprise to many, but it is immediately worth noting that similar warnings were issued in other European countries. Governments in Spain, Germany, Switzerland and Austria sent messages to citizens. The latter were extremely blunt in their message, they make it clear that due to power cuts, there may be serious difficulties in transport and movement, and many roads will be blocked due to leaving vehicles on them that have run out of fuel.
In this light, the warnings of the Polish government can be considered exceptionally mild, which, however, does not change the fact that the first signs of the impending crisis have already been felt in this matter. The aforementioned Polish Energy Networks announced that the country had a problem with balancing the power system on 6 December. “Due to the low wind generation, as well as emergency and repair shutdowns of several generating units, on December 6, 2021 there were difficulties in balancing the national power system. The balance shortage concerns the inability to meet the required level of power reserves ”- it was informed.
Help from the neighbors
Moreover, it was announced that similar problems could arise again and it was confirmed that Poland had to use electricity from countries such as Sweden, Germany, Ukraine and Lithuania as part of the "inter-operator emergency assistance from neighboring systems”.
Everything that is happening right before our eyes is not a coincidence. Europe has been struggling with the energy crisis for some time, which was caused by several factors, including the most important ones - unfavorable weather and interruptions in gas supplies from Russia. All this has led to huge increases in the markets in terms of electricity prices, and also to the fact that Polish power plants had to operate at the highest load in history.
Experts from the portal "WysokieNapiecie.pl" wrote about the fact that the system is under extreme pressure. Their sources show that it has even reached 27.5 GW, and the demand is constantly growing. Today, Poland has to deal not only with the great appetite of domestic recipients, but also with great exports. Only in September, Poland earned over 300 million złotych on this.
Admittedly, the government is reassuring, and the Energy Regulatory Office believes that so far there are no indications that we are threatened with longer interruptions in supplies and their continuity.
Gloomy forecasts
However, it is worth recalling that already in March, representatives of key ministries, as well as the heads of the Polish Electricity Networks, were to meet, during which the long-term action plan was discussed. It is also no secret that after 2025 - at the time of the planned extinction of the capacity market for old coal-fired power plants, we may face a very serious problem. It is already speculated today that the holes in the system will not be patched, which in turn leads to the conclusion that it will be simply impossible to meet all needs.
Perhaps the scenario from the famous book by Marc Elsberg, "Blackout", is not a threat to us as described by the author, but the situation that happened in Szczecin in 2008, when the main electricity supply to the city failed. Effect? The total lack of it for several hours, which at a time when almost everything is dependent on electricity, caused a huge problem in many areas of the inhabitants' lives. - A special report signed by the Ministry of Climate and Environment has recently been published. There, different scenarios are analyzed, ranging from optimistic to pessimistic. Even in the former, it is said that in 10 years we will face long hours of blackouts in our energy system - said Piotr Woźny, president of ZE PAK, in an interview with „Gazeta.pl”.
